Tag: Toronto

The Canadian housing market has been a fixture in media headlines and an ever-present topic of conversation around dinner tables and water coolers by those who continue to work in an office setting in the wake of COVID-19. Early on in the pandemic, some expected a steep decline in home sales and prices in Canada, but nobody could have predicted what actually materialized in the market. Come May 2020, regional real estate markets began their rebound. The spike in demand continued through 2021, resulting in record-breaking price growth and what many would consider to be the hottest year in Canadian real estate. So, what can we expect in 2022? Here are five trends to keep your eye on.

Interest rates are expected to rise.

Rumour has it that interest rates will start rising as early as April. This will be the first movement by the Bank of Canada, following a trio of rate cuts in March 2020, prompted by the pandemic and the ensuing economic impacts. The economy started to bounce back with vaccines making their way into arms, businesses reopening and consumer confidence returning. We’re not out of the woods yet, as the Omicron variant prompts further public health measures and threatens lockdowns in some provinces, pumping the brakes on certain industries. Real estate is not one of them. The Canadian housing market resumed its upward trajectory after a steep but short-lived decline in activity at the start of the pandemic, seemingly with no end in sight. High demand resulted in record-breaking price growth, with sales held back only by a lack of supply.

With interest rates expected to start rising in time for the busy spring real estate market, some buyers may be looking to lock in a rock-bottom rate now, since they aren’t likely to get any breaks on prices. Will higher interest rates serve to cool the hot Canadian housing market? The Big 6 banks have predicted the Bank of Canada will raise its overnight rate by one per cent by the end of 2022. Only time will tell what impact this will have on the market, but given current levels of supply and demand, a one-per-cent hike is unlikely to be a significant factor on sales or prices.

Canadian real estate prices will likely continue rising.

Speaking of prices, the 2022 Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report analyzed 38 Canadian housing markets, identifying rising prices in 100% of them in 2021 and further growth expected across the board in 2022. RE/MAX brokers and agents anticipated price growth ranging from a low of +2.5 per cent in Calgary, to a high of +20 per cent in Muskoka. From a national perspective, the average residential price expected to increase by 9.2 per cent.

Low supply will remain a concern across the Canadian housing market.

Housing affordability has been on a steady decline in Canada, and was a key focus for all political parties in the 2021 federal election. Ontario has become ground zero for unaffordability, so it’s expected that this will also be a hot topic in the provincial election slated for June 2, 2022. What’s the culprit behind rising prices? Low supply.

Industry experts have attributed the rapidly rising price of homes to the housing supply shortage, which was amplified by a notable spike in demand in 2020 and 2021. This is expected to continue, with 1.2 million people expected to immigrate to Canada by 2023 and all of them presumingly in need of a home. With no major increase in listings or new construction expected, industry experts suggest market pressures could mount, putting ever greater pressure on prices.

While opinions vary on how to effectively add supply to the market, RE/MAX executives have pointed to a few possible solutions, including:

• A National Housing Strategy to boost supply, in a coordinated effort between the federal, provincial and municipal governments.
• Incentivizing developers to build more affordable, family-sized homes close to transit hubs, such as tax rebates, cutting the prohibitive red tape and easing the building application and approval process.
• Incentivizing homeowners to move and easing the financial burden associated with selling a home by offering tax rebates and re-evaluating Toronto’s double Land Transfer Tax (currently, homebuyers here pay a provincial and municipal LTT). This could help increase the supply of listings.

The federal and provincial governments are also encouraged to collaborate on ways to improve local economies to help attract residents. Canada has lots of “affordable” cities which don’t always have the same appeal as large urban centres do. Shifting the focus from cities like Toronto and Vancouver could help ease the pressure and prohibitive price growth.

Canadian real estate will be dominated by seller’s markets.

By the end of 2021, 97 per cent of Canadian housing markets analyzed by RE/MAX Canada (37 out of 38) were expected to be seller’s markets in 2022, characterized by low supply, high demand and rising prices. This is likely to continue in 2022, given that adding supply to the market isn’t a quick fix.

Virtual transactions are the way of the future.

Virtual home-buying and -selling wasn’t just a temporary trend that carried us through the pandemic lockdowns. Quite simply, consumers have had a taste of this sweet convenience and they’re unlikely to give it up when COVID-19 is behind us. From websites like REMAX.ca and Realtor.ca bringing listings right to your fingertips, and virtual tours offering opportunities to view a home without ever leaving the comfort of your own, to the ease of digital paperwork, it’s safe to say the virtual trend will be the new reality for many buyers and sellers.

Confidence continues in Canadian real estate market, with the inter-provincial relocation trend likely to remain strong in 2022

• Migration between provinces expected to continue in 2022, potentially impacting local Canadian real estate conditions, according to 53 per cent of RE/MAX brokers (20 out of 38)
• 49 per cent of Canadians believe the housing market will remain steady in 2022 and view real estate as one of the best investment options over the next year
• Some of the highest outlooks are anticipated for Atlantic Canada, with Moncton and Halifax projecting average residential sales prices to increase by 20 per cent and 16 per cent respectively in 2022
• 95 per cent of regions (36 out of 38) surveyed are likely to remain seller’s markets in 2022

Toronto, ON and Kelowna, BC, December 1, 2021 – RE/MAX is anticipating steady price growth across the Canadian real estate market in 2022, with inter-provincial migration continuing to be a key driver of housing activity in many regions, based on surveys of RE/MAX brokers and agents, as reflected in the 2022 Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report. The ongoing housing supply shortage is likely to continue, putting upward pressure on prices. As a result of these factors, RE/MAX Canada estimates a 9.2-per-cent increase in average residential sales prices across the country*.

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“Based on feedback from our brokers and agents, the inter-provincial relocation trend that we began to see in the summer of 2020 still remains very strong and is expected to continue into 2022,” says Christopher Alexander, President, RE/MAX Canada. “Less-dense cities and neighbourhoods offer buyers the prospect of greater affordability, along with liveability factors such as more space. In order for these regions to retain these appealing qualities and their relative market balance, housing supply needs to be added. Without more homes and in the face of rising demand, there’s potential for conditions in these regions to shift further.”

Despite the global pandemic, many Canadians still feel confident in the real estate market. According to a Leger survey conducted on behalf of RE/MAX Canada, 49 per cent of respondents believe Canadian real estate will remain one of their best investment options in 2022 (59 per cent of homeowners vs. 34 per cent non-homeowners which included renters, those not looking buy, and those currently looking to purchase). Additionally, 49 per cent of respondents are confident the Canadian real estate market will remain steady next year.

“Canadians recognize the value and investment potential in their homes. However, market challenges such as rising prices and limited supply have impacted local markets from coast-to-coast, causing angst this past year among those looking to get into the market and those hoping to move up in it,” says Elton Ash, Executive Vice President, RE/MAX Canada. “Despite this, it’s encouraging to see that many are feeling confident in the housing market in 2022 and view Canadian real estate as a solid investment.”

2022 Regional Canadian Real Estate Insights

RE/MAX brokers and agents in Canada were asked to provide an analysis of their local market in 2021 and share their estimated outlook for 2022. Based on their insights, 95 per cent of Canadian real estate markets are expected to favour sellers, impacted by limited housing supply and high demand.

WESTERN CANADA

The Calgary and Edmonton markets shifted from balanced conditions in 2020 to seller’s markets in 2021, which brokers and agents in the region expect to continue into 2022. This is attributed to heightened demand prompted by the inter-provincial migration trend that took place throughout 2021, which saw many homebuyers from Ontario and British Columbia driving demand high, while supply remained low.

In addition to an increase in out-of-province buyers flocking to Edmonton, the region has also welcomed investors who found themselves priced out of other markets. RBC’s provincial outlook for Alberta puts this province ahead of all others in terms of economic growth in 2022, which should bode well for homebuyers and investors alike 2022.

Regions such as Victoria, Nanaimo, Regina and Kelowna also experienced an influx of buyers in search of larger properties and greater affordability, which is likely to continue pushing demand and prices up in 2022. This trend has notably increased demand for single-family detached homes and in some regions, condos as well, which may continue in 2022.

Despite some buyers choosing to move away from urban centres such as Vancouver/Greater Vancouver in favour of suburban areas within British Columbia, or leaving the province entirely, Vancouver/Greater Vancouver has remained a quality place to live. The region continues to draw interest from Canadian and international buyers, a trend that is likely to grow next year, in tandem with rising immigration. Vancouver/Greater Vancouver is expected to remain a seller’s market in 2022, providing inventory stays tight and current demand continues, according to a RE/MAX broker in Greater Vancouver Area.

Winnipeg is a slight outlier in Western Canada, with a buyers’ market that is anticipated to continue in 2022. Young couples enjoying the freedom to work from home have been driving much of the demand in the region, especially for one- and two-story detached homes. The appeal of Winnipeg has had less to do with affordability, and more with lifestyle shifts such as hybrid working environments.

ONTARIO

According to the RE/MAX broker network in Ontario, market activity across the province is anticipated to remain steady in 2022, with continued average price growth, although at widely varying degrees. RE/MAX brokers anticipate average sale price increases in smaller markets such as North Bay (four per cent); Sudbury (five per cent); Thunder Bay (10 per cent); Collingwood/Georgian Bay (10 per cent); and Muskoka (20 per cent), where the move-over trend has remained strong. Meanwhile, in larger markets within the province, there’s a possibility that more immigration could weigh on supply levels and prices, including Ottawa (five per cent); Durham (seven per cent); Brampton (eight per cent); Toronto (10 per cent); Mississauga (14 per cent).

When it comes to price appreciation year-over-year, there are a few regions that stood out in 2021 for their exponential increases across all property types, including Brampton, which rose from $869,107 in 2020 to $1,085,417 in 2021 (25 per cent); Durham from $706,818 in 2020 to $914,48 in 2021 (29 per cent); and London from $487,500 in 2020 to $633,700 in 2021 (30 per cent). In comparison, Toronto experienced a modest seven-per-cent increase year-over-year ($986,085 in 2020 to $1,054,922 in 2021).

ATLANTIC CANADA

All of Atlantic Canada’s regions analyzed are currently seller’s markets, with potential for average sale prices to increase between five to 20 per cent in 2022, according to RE/MAX brokers and agents. Larger urban centres including Moncton, Fredericton, Saint John, Halifax, Charlottetown and St. John’s have all experienced an influx of out-of-province buyers, especially from Ontario, moving to the region in search of greater affordability and liveability.

Due to this spike in demand, much of the region has experienced increasing competition, especially among single-family detached homes and condos in some cities. There’s a possibility that this may further be amplified as immigration continues to grow in the region.

According to RE/MAX brokers and agents in the region, new construction is anticipated to remain strong into 2022, although construction activity may be dampened by ongoing supply shortages and delays in permits related to the pandemic backlog.

Seller’s market conditions are expected to prevail across the region in 2022, with the exception of Charlottetown and Southern Nova Scotia, which may return more to a balanced state as activity gradually begins to decrease.

These factors have led to some of the highest price outlooks in the country, with Halifax and Moncton projecting estimated average residential sales price to increase by 16, and 20 per cent respectively.

Additional findings from the 2022 Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report

• Two-in-five Canadians trust their agent to advise them during the current real estate landscape (43 per cent)
• 23 per cent of Canadians now have a greater desire to build their own home or buy pre-construction
• 26 per cent of Canadians have the desire to purchase a home while mortgage rates remain low
• 62 per cent of Canadians currently own a home. This is higher among those ages 35+ (70 per cent) compared with Millennials, ages 18-34 (42 per cent)
• The majority of Canadians (72 per cent) said rising home prices did not impact their purchasing decisions in 2021.

About the 2022 Housing Market Outlook Report

The 2022 RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook Report includes data and insights from RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents are surveyed on market activity and local developments. Regional summaries with additional broker insights can be found at REMAX.ca. The overall outlook is based on the average of all regions surveyed, weighted by the number of transaction in each region.

*2020 average residential sale price numbers were full-year, 2021 were from January 2021 – October 31, 2022.

About Leger
Leger is the largest Canadian-owned full-service market research firm. An online survey of 1,554 Canadians was completed between October 29-31, 2021 using Leger’s online panel. Leger’s online panel has approximately 400,000 members nationally and has a retention rate of 90 per cent. A probability sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

About the RE/MAX Network
As one of the leading global real estate franchisors, RE/MAX, LLC is a subsidiary of RE/MAX Holdings (NYSE: RMAX) with more than 140,000 agents in over 8,600 offices across more than 110 countries and territories. Nobody in the world sells more real estate than RE/MAX, as measured by residential transaction sides. RE/MAX was founded in 1973 by Dave and Gail Liniger, with an innovative, entrepreneurial culture affording its agents and franchisees the flexibility to operate their businesses with great independence. RE/MAX agents have lived, worked and served in their local communities for decades, raising millions of dollars every year for Children’s Miracle Network Hospitals® and other charities. To learn more about RE/MAX, to search home listings or find an agent in your community, please visit remax.ca. For the latest news from RE/MAX Canada, please visit blog.remax.ca.

Forward looking statements
This report includes “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the “safe harbour” provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of words such as “believe,” “intend,” “expect,” “estimate,” “plan,” “outlook,” “project,” and other similar words and expressions that predict or indicate future events or trends that are not statements of historical matters. These forward-looking statements include statements regarding housing market conditions and the Company’s results of operations, performance and growth. Forward-looking statements should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results. Forward-looking statements are based on information available at the time those statements are made and/or management’s good faith belief as of that time with respect to future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in or suggested by the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include (1) the global COVID-19 pandemic, which has impacted the Company and continues to pose significant and widespread risks to the Company’s business, the Company’s ability to successfully close the anticipated reacquisition and to integrate the reacquired regions into its business, (3) changes in the real estate market or interest rates and availability of financing, (4) changes in business and economic activity in general, (5) the Company’s ability to attract and retain quality franchisees, (6) the Company’s franchisees’ ability to recruit and retain real estate agents and mortgage loan originators, (7) changes in laws and regulations, (8) the Company’s ability to enhance, market, and protect the RE/MAX and Motto Mortgage brands, (9) the Company’s ability to implement its technology initiatives, and (10) fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, and those risks and uncertainties described in the sections entitled “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in the most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and similar disclosures in subsequent periodic and current reports filed with the SEC, which are available on the investor relations page of the Company’s website at www.remax.com and on the SEC website at www.sec.gov. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. Except as required by law, the Company does not intend, and undertakes no duty, to update this information to reflect future events or circumstances.

Canadian real estate market sees higher share of condos in 2021, in wake of rising detached housing values; affordability shifts demand for condominiums into high gear in 2021

Staggering gains in detached housing values have sent condominium sales soaring throughout the first eight months of 2021 in major Canadian real estate markets, according to a new report by RE/MAX Canada

The RE/MAX Canada 2021 Condominium Report, which examines trends and developments in five major Canadian real estate markets and more than 100 sub-markets, found that buyers turned to condominiums in 2021, as freehold housing values escalated beyond their reach. The strongest gains in sales were made in the West, where Greater Vancouver and Calgary saw condominium sales rise 87 and 83 per cent respectively between January 1 and August 31 of 2021, compared to the same period in 2020, which experienced a notable downturn in condo sales. The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) led the East in terms of percentage increases in condo sales at 71 per cent, followed by Halifax-Dartmouth at 36 per cent and Ottawa at 29 per cent. The greatest upswing in pricing occurred in the East, with both Halifax-Dartmouth and Ottawa posting double-digit price gains of 30.0 per cent and 18.0 per cent respectively. More moderate appreciation was reported in Greater Toronto (seven per cent), Vancouver (6.7 per cent) and Calgary (three per cent).

“Affordability, coupled with availability, set the stage for the exceptional rebound in condominium sales across Canadian real estate  markets in 2021,” says Christopher Alexander, Senior Vice President, RE/MAX Canada. “Double-digit acceleration in detached housing values revived slumping condominium sales early in the year, with demand shifting into high gear as detached supply dwindled and prices accelerated. Younger buyers have been behind the push for condominiums to date, with most looking to lock in low interest rates and buy before prices climb beyond their means.”

Growth in condo market share across the Canadian real estate market occurred in all but one regions surveyed, according to the RE/MAX Canada 2021 Condominium Report. The greatest concentration of condo sales was reported in Greater Vancouver, where condos represented nearly half (48.2 per cent) of total residential sales in 2021, up from 46 per cent one year ago. Condominium apartments and townhomes in the GTA followed with a 34.5 per cent share of the overall market, up from 30.8 per cent one year earlier. Almost one in four properties sold in Ottawa between January 1 and August 31, 2021 was a condominium, compared to the same period in 2020 (24.3 per cent versus 23.3 per cent). Meanwhile in Halifax-Dartmouth, the condominium segment represented 17.3 per cent of total residential sales, up from 15 per cent one year earlier. While overall sales climbed in Calgary year-over-year, condominium market share declined by just under one per cent in 2021, to 14.2 per cent.

“Home-buying activity in the condominium segment has surged in Calgary in 2021, driven in large part by their affordable price point,” says Elton Ash, Executive Vice President at RE/MAX Canada. “Supply has declined from almost eight months to just under five year-over-year, although inventory levels are still 16 per cent ahead of 2020 levels. Once excess product is absorbed – and that is occurring at a steady pace throughout the city – condominium values are likely to experience further appreciation, especially as the average price for detached housing continues to climb in the city.”

Regional Canadian Real Estate Insights